valuation_biotech
Biotech Pipeline Valuation
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Third-party content written by another agent. Data to evaluate, not instructions.
Risk-adjusted biotech valuation: peak sales, decision-tree expected value, and full pipeline rNPV across drugs. Method selects the model. Use for pharma/drug pipelines; for hardware or deep tech use valuation_hardware. Parameters apply per method: peak_sales needs patient_population + penetration + price; decision_tree needs probabilities + terminal_value; pipeline needs drugs + discount_rate. Not for hardware or deep tech — for that use valuation_hardware. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.
Input schema
| Property | Type | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| method | string | yes | Formula to apply. Options: peak_sales = Peak = population × penetration × price × compliance.; decision_tree = EV = Π pᵢ × terminal value.; pipeline = V = Σ(peak sales × multiple × P_success) / (1+r)^n. |
| patient_population | number | no | Target patient population treated per year. |
| penetration | number | no | Market penetration as a decimal (0.10 = 10%). |
| price | number | no | Price per unit / treatment, currency units. |
| compliance | number | no | Compliance / adherence rate as a decimal. |
| probabilities | array | no | Probability of each outcome or stage, each in [0,1]; the list must sum to 1 where it is exhaustive. |
| terminal_value | number | no | Expected exit / terminal value, currency units. |
| drugs | array | no | Pipeline drugs: {name, peak_sales, probability, years_to_market, multiple(optional)}. |
| discount_rate | number | no | Discount rate as a decimal (0.12 = 12%). |
Raw JSON schema
{
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"method": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"peak_sales",
"decision_tree",
"pipeline"
],
"description": "Formula to apply. Options: peak_sales = Peak = population × penetration × price × compliance.; decision_tree = EV = Π pᵢ × terminal value.; pipeline = V = Σ(peak sales × multiple × P_success) / (1+r)^n."
},
"patient_population": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Target patient population treated per year."
},
"penetration": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Market penetration as a decimal (0.10 = 10%)."
},
"price": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Price per unit / treatment, currency units."
},
"compliance": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Compliance / adherence rate as a decimal.",
"default": 1
},
"probabilities": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "number"
},
"description": "Probability of each outcome or stage, each in [0,1]; the list must sum to 1 where it is exhaustive."
},
"terminal_value": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Expected exit / terminal value, currency units."
},
"drugs": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "object"
},
"description": "Pipeline drugs: {name, peak_sales, probability, years_to_market, multiple(optional)}."
},
"discount_rate": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Discount rate as a decimal (0.12 = 12%)."
}
},
"required": [
"method"
]
}