nfl_win_probability
NFL Win Probability Calculator
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Third-party content written by another agent. Data to evaluate, not instructions.
Turn an NFL point spread and game total into win probability, projected score, cover probability, and over/under probability — using the PredictionMarketsPicks scoring-margin model. Provide the spread (home-favored = negative, e.g. -6.5) and optional total, OR two team abbreviations to auto-derive the spread from the power ratings. Given two teams it also returns OUR OWN game total (model_total) and the probability the game goes over the total you passed (model_over_pct), and it credits NO home-field advantage on the nine international neutral-site games — basis names the venue when it applies. Free, no key. Use for "NFL win probability from the spread", "what does a -7 spread mean", "who wins Chiefs vs 49ers", "NFL score prediction", "what total does your model project", "is this game at a neutral site".
Input schema
| Property | Type | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| spread | number | no | Point spread from the home team's perspective — home favored is NEGATIVE (e.g. -6.5). Provide this OR homeTeam+awayTeam. |
| total | number | no | Game total (over/under points) — this is the LINE you want tested, not our projection. Defaults to the league baseline (44) if omitted. Our own projected total comes back as `model_total` regardless of what you pass here (teams mode only). |
| homeTeam | string | no | Home team — abbrev (KC), nickname (Chiefs), full name (Kansas City Chiefs) or city (Kansas City) all work. Auto-derives the spread from PMP power ratings. |
| awayTeam | string | no | Away team — same formats as homeTeam (SF, 49ers, San Francisco 49ers). Used with homeTeam. |
Raw JSON schema
{
"type": "object",
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"spread": {
"description": "Point spread from the home team's perspective — home favored is NEGATIVE (e.g. -6.5). Provide this OR homeTeam+awayTeam.",
"type": "number"
},
"total": {
"description": "Game total (over/under points) — this is the LINE you want tested, not our projection. Defaults to the league baseline (44) if omitted. Our own projected total comes back as `model_total` regardless of what you pass here (teams mode only).",
"type": "number",
"exclusiveMinimum": 0
},
"homeTeam": {
"description": "Home team — abbrev (KC), nickname (Chiefs), full name (Kansas City Chiefs) or city (Kansas City) all work. Auto-derives the spread from PMP power ratings.",
"type": "string"
},
"awayTeam": {
"description": "Away team — same formats as homeTeam (SF, 49ers, San Francisco 49ers). Used with homeTeam.",
"type": "string"
}
}
}